mohammed albattashi
the depression in the arabian sea will take another 24 to 36 hours to become a tropical cyclone. The wind shear is very low and sea temperatures are very high, but the problem is dry air in the north that is blocking the storm to reach cyclonic status. But on june 10 or june 11 the depression is extremely likely to become a cyclone and head towards pakistan. the cyclone will move in a north western direction and hit the iranian coast on june 15 as a weak depression.
under the influence of this cyclone heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong winds likely all over the coast of pakistan from june 11 till june 14. The cyclone could intensify further near karachi
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The JTWC issued an advisory about the higher probability of a development of a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. Winds around 30 knots just on the verge of becoming a tropical storm.
The tropical depression has now shown marked improvement although convection remains confined to the southwest of LLCC. It looks more likely than before that we could have a named storm in the Arabian sea if concoction wraps nicely around an exposed LLCC especially as wind shear is favorable along with good divergence aloft.
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